TALLINN - Estonian politicians have stepped up their campaign to discredit Rene van der Linden, president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, for his controversial comments about human rights issues concerning Russian-speaking residents.
The high-ranking European politician has been indirectly accused of lying to the media, distributing incorrect information, and not declaring his financial interests to the parliamentary assembly.
The most recent charge against van der Linden came on Oct. 8, when he was again accused of having financial connections to Russian companies, something he has repeatedly denied.
Marko Mihkelson, the chairman of the European Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament, held a press conference to release a dossier of information about van der Linden’s alleged Russian investments.
“The purpose of my press conference was to release this information, which is public anyway, so that everybody can make their own decisions about whether there is a possible conflict of interest,” said Mihkelson, a member of the ruling right-wing party IRL and a former chairman of the Estonian delegation to PACE.
“The possibility of a conflict is quite visible.”
He suggested that van der Linden may have breached PACE Resolution No. 1554, which requires parliamentary members to disclose any conflicts of interest.
The dossier contained press clippings from Russian media sources in which van der Linden is repeatedly named and quoted as the head of the supervisory council of Noble House Holding, a company that invested an estimated 100 million euros into a technology business park in Sobinsk, Russia.
Mihkelson also aired a video showing van der Linden at the opening ceremony of the business park.
For his part, van der Linden has again asserted that he has no such financial dealings. In a statement issued on Oct. 8, he said is not a member of any supervisory or other board of a company with economic interests in Russia.
“I would therefore urge Mr. Mihkelson to stop this slandering,” van der Linden said.
Van der Linden is just the latest in a string of international observers to criticize Estonia over its Russian-speaking population. But the PACE president became a target of criticism himself after he wrongly claimed that non-citizens in Estonia had no electoral voice – they are, in fact, entitled to vote in municipal elections.
That led the speaker of Estonia’s parliament, IRL member Ene Ergma, to fire off an indignant letter to van der Linden which suggested he was not fit to hold his office.
Others in Estonia have joined the chorus against the PACE president.
The Baltic Times asked Mihkelson if, through his campaign against van der Linden, he was attempting to scare off other international observers from scrutinizing Estonia’s integration policies.
Mihkelson welcomed the question, and said Estonia was a democratic country that welcomed international observers.
“We are open to scrutiny. But here I don’t see any connection to the issues of integration. Those issues are very important for us… But if there is some sort of misleading information used, or lies, then of course there is a need to correct the position,” Mihkelson said.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Friday, September 28, 2007
Bush on Climate Change
Did anyone else see the press conference that president Bush gave on Climate Change from Washington just now?
It was SO obvious that he had no idea what he was talking about and that he didn't really believe any of it! In the end, as he read the statements point by point, he felt the need to charge them with his little comments, only his comments sounded so.... stupid (and i tried hard to find another word here)
This really pisses me off, seriously! The Kyoto Protocol has been around for ages, and he has always turned a blind eye to it. And now he comes as the saviour of the planet and taking "leadership" on this issue. Like no one else has done something before... arghhh
Watching the whole thing I couldn't believe that that man is the president of a nation with a say in the world.
Its like now he suddenly woke up and decided to take leadership on something he knows nothing about...
We don't need your leadership, we just need you to commit to what we've already been doing! thank you very much!
It's so typical Bush... "it's my way, or the highway" Like he doesn't want to be part of anything unless he's leading it... arghhh GROW UP!
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Violent clashes in Tallinn, over Red Army statue
Fresh clashes over Estonia statue
 |  The exact number of arrests on Friday night was unclear  |
Enlarge ImagePolice fired tear gas and rubber bullets after new clashes with mainly ethnic Russian protesters erupted over the removal of a Soviet war memorial.
Estonia says the memorial symbolised Soviet occupation. Supporters say it celebrated heroes who fought the Nazis.
Russian officials said a man who died in Thursday night's clashes was a Russian national.
A Foreign Ministry statement said the Estonian authorities had at first denied that any Russian citizens were among the casualties. 
The man, who was a resident of Estonia, has been named as Dmitry Ganin.
The Estonian authorities have said he was stabbed by another demonstrator and that police had no involvement in his death.
There have been unconfirmed reports of a second death, in custody.
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed "serious concern" about the events during a phone conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a Kremlin statement said.
Looting
The monument was removed on Friday and taken to a secret location.
ESTONIA-RUSSIA TIES 1918: Estonia gained independence from Russia 1940: Forcibly incorporated into Soviet Union 1941-1944: Occupied by Nazi Germany 1944: Soviets return as Nazis retreat 1991: Gains independence as Soviet Union collapses 1994: Last Russian forces leave Estonia Now: Ethnic Russians make up quarter of Estonia's 1.3m people
Correspondents said a crowd of more than 1,000 demonstrators gathered on Friday evening where the monument used to stand.
Some of the protesters threw petrol bombs, while others waved Russian flags and chanted "Rossiya, Rossiya" (Russia, Russia).
Department stores and other shops in the city centre were looted.
There were also reports of rioting and looting in the towns of Johvi and Kohtla-Jarve, in a mainly ethnic Russian region east of Tallinn.
AFP said that in Johvi looters set fire to a statue of an Estonian general who fought the Russians during the country's 1918 war of independence.
By Saturday morning the situation in central Tallinn was described as calm, but the authorities are braced for more trouble.
HAVE YOUR SAY 
Mihkel T, Tartu, Estonia
Squads of police were seen moving around the area where the memorial used to stand.
The BBC's Richard Galpin in Tallinn says the security forces cannot afford to take chances, with more protests expected on Saturday night.
The decision to remove the Soviet monument has strained relations with Russia, which called it "blasphemous".
And for local ethnic Russians it is one insult too many, our correspondent says, after what they feel has been years of discrimination against them by the majority Estonian population.
Whereabouts unknown
More than a quarter of Estonia's 1.3m people are ethnically Russian, and speak the language.
However, half of them do not have Estonian citizenship.
But the Estonians believe much of the tension is being whipped up by forces outside the country, i.e. Russia itself.
During the years of Soviet occupation after World War II, tens of thousands of Estonians were killed. And they say their country was effectively colonised with many Russians being brought in as workers and military personnel.
Estonia's government would not reveal where it took the six-foot (1.83m) statue, but spokesman Martin Jasko said it would ultimately be placed at the military cemetery in Tallinn.
The memorial, a bronze statue of a Soviet soldier, was erected in 1947. The remains of Soviet soldiers are thought to be buried nearby.Friday, February 9, 2007
20 mishaps that could have caused a nuclear war
http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-
weapons/issues/accidents/20-mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear-war.htm
weapons/issues/accidents/20-mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear-war.htm
20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War
by Alan F. Philips, M.D.
Ever since the two adversaries in the Cold War, the U.S.A. an the U.S.S.R.,
realized that their nuclear arsenals were sufficient to do disastrous
damage to both countries at short notice, the leaders and the military
commanders have thought about the possibility of a nuclear war starting
without their intention or as a result of a false alarm. Increasingly
elaborate accessories have been incorporated in nuclear weapons and their
delivery systems to minimize the risk of unauthorized or accidental launch
or detonation. A most innovative action was the establishment of the "hot
line" between Washington and Moscow in 1963 to reduce the risk of
misunderstanding between the supreme commanders.
Despite all precautions, the possibility of an inadvertent war due to an
unpredicted sequence of events remained as a deadly threat to both
countries and to the world. That is the reason I am prepared to spend the
rest of my life working for abolition of nuclear weapons.
One way a war could start is a false alarm via one of the warning systems,
followed by an increased level of nuclear forces readiness while the
validity of the information was being checked. This action would be
detected by the other side, and they would take appropriate action;
detection of the response would tend to confirm the original false alarm;
and so on to disaster. A similar sequence could result from an accidental
nuclear explosion anywhere. The risk of such a sequence developing would be
increased if it happened during a period of increased international
tension.
On the American side many "false alarms" and significant accidents have
been listed , ranging from trivial to very serious, during the Cold War .
Probably many remain unknown to the public and the research community
because of individuals' desire to avoid blame and maintain the good
reputation of their unit or command. No doubt there have been as many
mishaps on the Soviet Side.
Working with any new system, false alarms are more likely. The rising moon
was misinterpreted as a missile attack during the early days of long-range
radar. A fire at a broken gas pipeline was believed to be enemy jamming by
laser of a satellite's infrared sensor when those sensors were first
deployed.
The risks are illustrated by the following selection of mishap. If the
people involved had exercised less caution, or if some unfortunate
coincidental event had occurred, escalation to nuclear war can easily be
imagined. Details of some of the events differ in different sources: where
there have been disagreements, I have chosen to quote those from the
carefully researched book, The Limits of Safety by Scott D. Sagan. Sagan
gives references to original sources in all instances.
The following selections represent only a fraction of the false alarms that
have been reported on the American side. Many probably remain unreported,
or are hidden in records that remain classified. There are likely to have
been as many on the Soviet Side which are even more difficult to access.
1) November 5, 1956: Suez Crisis Coincidence
British and French Forces were attacking Egypt at the Suez Canal;. The
Soviet Government had suggested to the U.S. that they combine forces to
stop this by a joint military action, and had warned the British and French
governments that (non-nuclear) rocket attacks on London and Paris were
being considered. That night NORAD HQ received messages that:
(i) unidentified aircraft were flying over Turkey and the Turkish air force
was on alert
(ii) 100 Soviet MIG-15's were flying over Syria
(iii) a British Canberra bomber had been shot down over Syria
(iv) the Soviet fleet was moving through the Dardanelles.
It is reported that in the U.S.A. General Goodpaster himself was concerned
that these events might trigger the NATO operations plan for nuclear
strikes against the U.S.S.R.
The four reports were all shown afterwards to have innocent explanations.
They were due, respectively, to:
(i) a flight of swans
(ii) a routine air force escort (much smaller than the number reported) for
the president of Syria, who was returning from a visit to Moscow
(iii) the Canberra bomber was forced down by mechanical problems
(iv) the Soviet fleet was engaged in scheduled routine exercises.
2) November 24, 1961: BMEWS Communication Failure
On the night of November 24, 1961, all communication links went dead
between SAC HQ and NORAD. The communication loss cut off SAC HQ from the
three Ballistic Missile Early Warning Sites (BMEWS) at Thule (Greenland,)
Clear (Alaska,) and Fillingdales (England,). There were two possible
explanations facing SAC HQ: either enemy action, or the coincidental
failure of all the communication systems, which had redundant and
ostensibly independent routes, including commercial telephone circuits. All
SAC bases in the United States were therefore alerted, and B-52 bomber
crews started their engines, with instructions not to to take off without
further orders. Radio communication was established with an orbiting B-52
on airborne alert, near Thule. It contacted the BMEWS stations by radio and
could report that no attack had taken place.
The reason for the "coincidental" failure was the redundant routes for
telephone and telegraph between NORAD and SAC HQ all ran through one relay
station in Colorado. At that relay station a motor had overheated and
caused interruption of all the lines.
3) August 23, 1962: B-52 Navigation Error
SAC Chrome Dome airborne alert route included a leg from the northern tip
of Ellesmore Island, SW across the Arctic Ocean to Barter Island, Alaska.
On August 23, 1962, a B-52 nuclear armed bomber crew made a navigational
error and flew 20 degrees too far north. They approached within 300 miles
of Soviet airspace near Wrangel island, where there was believed to be an
interceptor base with aircraft having an operational radius of 400 miles.
Because of the risk of repetition of such an error, in this northern area
where other checks on Navigation are difficult to obtain, it was decided to
fly a less provocative route in the future. However, the necessary orders
had not been given by the time of the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962,
so throughout that crisis the same northern route was being flown 24 hours
a day.
4) August-October, 1962: U2 Flights into Soviet Airspace
U2 high altitude reconnaissance flights from Alaska occasionally strayed
unintentionally into Soviet airspace. One such episode occurred in August
1962. During the Cuban missile crisis on October of 1962, the U2 pilots
were ordered not to fly within 100 miles of Soviet airspace.
On the night of October 26, for a reason irrelevant to the crisis, a U2
pilot was ordered to fly a new route, over the north pole, where positional
checks on navigation were by sextant only. That night the aurora prevented
good sextant readings and the plane strayed over the Chukotski Peninsula.
Soviet MIG interceptors took off with orders to shoot down the U2. The
pilot contacted his U.S. command post and was ordered to fly due east
towards Alaska. He ran out of fuel while still over Siberia. In response to
his S.O.S., U.S. F102-A fighters were launched to escort him on his glide
to Alaska, with orders to prevent the MIG's from entering U.S. airspace.
The U.S. interceptor aircraft were armed with nuclear missiles. These could
have been used by any one of the F102-A pilots at his own discretion.
5) October 24, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: A Soviet Satellite Explodes
On October 24, a Soviet satellite entered its own parking orbit, and
shortly afterward exploded. Sir Bernard Lovell, director of the Jodrell
Bank observatory wrote in 1968: "the explosion of a Russian spacecraft in
orbit during the Cuban missile crisis... led the U.S. to believe that the
USSR was launching a massive ICBM attack." The NORAD Command Post logs of
the dates in question remain classified, possibly to conceal reaction to
the event. Its occurrence is recorded, and U.S. space tracking stations
were informed on October 31 of debris resulting from the breakup of "62
BETA IOTA."
6) October 25, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: Intruder in Duluth
At around midnight on October 25, a guard at the Duluth Sector Direction
Center saw a figure climbing the security fence. He shot at it, and
activated the "sabotage alarm." This automatically set off sabotage alarms
at all bases in the area. At Volk Field, Wisconsin, the alarm was wrongly
wired, and the Klaxon sounded which ordered nuclear armed F-106A
interceptors to take off. The pilots knew there would be no practice alert
drills while DEFCON 3 was in force, and they believed World War III had
started.
Immediate communication with Duluth showed there was an error. By this time
aircraft were starting down the runway. A car raced from command center and
successfully signaled the aircraft to stop. The original intruder was a
bear.
7) October 26, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: ICBM Test Launch
At Vandenburg Air Force Base, California, there was a program of routine
ICBM test flights. When DEFCON 3 was ordered all the ICBM's were fitted
with nuclear warheads except one Titan missile that was scheduled for a
test launch later that week. That one was launched for its test, without
further orders from Washington, at 4a.m. on the 26th.
It must be assumed that Russian observers were monitoring U.S. missile
activities as closely as U.S. observers were monitoring Russian and Cuban
activities. They would have known of the general changeover to nuclear
warheads, but not that this was only a test launch.
8) October 26, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: Unannounced Titan Missile Launch
During the Cuba crisis, some radar warning stations that were under
construction and near completion were brought into full operation as fast
as possible. The planned overlap of coverage was thus not always available.
A normal test launch of a Titan-II ICBM took place in the afternoon of
October 26, from Florida to the South Pacific. It caused temporary concern
at Moorestown Radar site until its course could be plotted and showed no
predicted impact within the United States. It was not until after this
event that the potential for a serious false alarm was realized, and orders
were given that radar warning sites must be notified in advance of test
launches, and the countdown be relayed to them.
9) October 26, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: Malstrom Air Force Base
When DEFCON 2 was declared on October 24, solid fuel Minuteman-1 missiles
at Malmstrom Air Force Base were being prepared for full deployment. The
work was accelerated to ready the missiles for operation, without waiting
for the normal handover procedures and safety checks. When one silo and
missile were ready on October 26 no armed guards were available to cover
transport from the normal separate storage, so the launch enabling
equipment and codes were all placed in the silo. It was thus physically
possible for a single operator to launch a fully armed missile at a SIOP
target.
During the remaining period of the Crisis the several missiles at Malstrom
were repeatedly put on and off alert as errors and defects were found and
corrected. Fortunately no combination of errors caused or threatened an
unauthorized launch, but in the extreme tension of the period the danger
can be well imagined.
10) October, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: NATO Readiness
It is recorded on October 22, that British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan
and NATO Supreme Commander, General Lauris Norstad agreed not to put NATO
on alert in order to avoid provocation of the U.S.S.R. When the U.S. Joint
Chiefs of Staff ordered DEFCON 3 Norstad was authorized to use his
discretion in complying. Norstad did not order a NATO alert. However,
several NATO subordinate commanders did order alerts to DEFCON 3 or
equivalent levels of readiness at bases in West Germany, Italy, Turkey, and
United Kingdom. This seems largely due to the action of General Truman
Landon, CINC U.S. Air Forces Europe, who had already started alert
procedures on October 17 in anticipation of a serious crisis over Cuba.
11) October, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: British Alerts
When the U.S. SAC went to DEFCON 2, on October 24, Bomber Command (the
U.K.) was carrying out an unrelated readiness exercise. On October 26, Air
Marshall Cross, CINC of Bomber Command, decided to prolong the exercise
because of the Cuba crisis, and later increased the alert status of British
nuclear forces, so that they could launch in 15 minutes.
It seems likely that Soviet intelligence would perceive these moves as part
of a coordinated plan in preparation for immediate war. They could not be
expected to know that neither the British Minister of Defense nor Prime
Minister Macmillian had authorized them.
It is disturbing to note how little was learned from these errors in
Europe. McGeorge Bundy wrote in Danger and Survival (New York: Random House
1988), "the risk [of nuclear war] was small, given the prudence and
unchallenged final control of the two leaders."
12) October 28, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: Moorestown False Alarm
Just before 9 a.m., on October 28, the Moorestown, New Jersey, radar
operators informed the national command post that a nuclear attack was
under way. A test tape simulating a missile launch from Cuba was being run,
and simultaneously a satellite came over the horizon.
Operators became confused and reported by voice line to NORAD HQ that
impact was expected 18 miles west of Tampa at 9:02 a.m. The whole of NORAD
was reported, but before irrevocable action had taken place it was reported
that no detonation had taken place at the predicted time, and Moorestown
operators reported the reason for the false alarm.
During the incident overlapping radar's that should have confirmed or
disagreed were not in operation . The radar post had not received routine
information of satellite passage because the facility carrying out that
task had been given other work for the duration of the crisis.
13) October 28, 1962- Cuban Missile Crisis: False Warning Due to Satellite
At 5:26 p.m. on October 28, the Laredo radar warning site had just become
operational. Operators misidentified a satellite in orbit as two possible
missiles over Georgia and reported by voice line to NORAD HQ. NORAD was
unable to identify that the warning came from the new station at Laredo and
believed it to be from Moorestown, and therefore more reliable. Moorestown
failed to intervene and contradict the false warning. By the time the CINC,
NORAD had been informed, no impact had been reported and the warning
was "given low credence."
14) November 2, 1962: The Penkovsky False Warning
In the fall of 1962, Colonel Oleg Penkovsky was working with the Soviets as
a double agent for the (U.S.) C.I.A. He had been given a code by which to
warn the CIA if he was convinced that a Soviet attack on the United States
was imminent. He was to call twice, one minute apart, and only blow into
the receiver. Further information was then to be left at a "dead drop" in
Moscow.
The pre-arranged code message was received by the CIA on November 2, 1962.
It was known at the CIA that Penkovsky had been arrested on October 22.
Penkovsky knew he was going to be executed. It is not known whether he had
told the KGB the meaning of the code signal or only how it would be given,
nor is it known exactly why or with what authorization the KGB staff used
it. When another CIA agent checked the dead drop he was arrested.
15) November, 1965: Power Failure and Faulty Bomb Alarms
Special bomb alarms were installed near military facilities and near cities
in the U.S.A., so that the locations of nuclear bursts would be transmitted
before the expected communication failure. The alarm circuits were set up
to display a red signal at command posts the instant that the flash of a
nuclear detonation reached the sensor and before the blast put it out of
action. Normally the display would show a green signal, and yellow if the
sensor was not operating or was out of communication for any other reason.
During the commercial power failure in the NE United States, in November
1965, displays from all the bomb alarms for the area should have shown
yellow. In fact, two of them from different cities showed red because of
circuit errors. The effect was consistent with the power failure being due
to nuclear weapons explosions, and the Command Center of the Office of
Emergency Planning went on full alert. Apparently the military did not.
16) January 21, 1968: B-52 Crash near Thule
Communication between NORAD HQ and the BMEWS station at Thule had 3
elements:
1. Direct radio communication.
2. A "bomb alarm" as described above.
3. Radio Communication relayed by a b-52 bomber on airborne alert.
On January 21, 1968, a fire broke out in the b-52 bomber on airborne alert
near Thule. The pilot prepared for an emergency landing at the base.
However the situation deteriorated rapidly, and the crew had to bale out.
There had been no time to communicate with SAC HQ, and the pilotless plane
flew over the Thule base before crashing on the ice 7 miles miles offshore.
Its fuel and high explosive component of its nuclear weapons exploded, but
there was no nuclear detonation.
At that time, the "one point safe" condition of the nuclear weapons could
not be guaranteed, and it is believed that a nuclear explosion could have
resulted form accidental detonation of the high explosive trigger. Had
there been a nuclear detonation even at 7 miles distant, and certainty much
nearer the base, all three communication methods would have given an
indication consistent with a succsessful nuclear attack on both the base
and the B-52 bomber. The bomb alarm would have shown red, and the other two
communication paths would have gone dead. It would hardly have been
anticipated that the combination could have been caused by accident,
particularly as the map of the routes for B-52 airborne flights approved by
the President showed no flight near to Thule. The route had been apparently
changed without informing the White House.
17) October 24-25, 1973: False Alarm During Middle East Crisis
On October 24, 1973, when the U.N. sponsored cease fire intended to end the
Arab-Israeli war was in force, further fighting stared between Egyptian and
Israeli troops in the Sinai desert. U.S. intelligence reports and other
sources suggested that the U.S.S.R. was planning to intervene to protect
the Egyptians. President Nixon was in the throes of Watergate episode and
not available for a conference, so Kissinger and other U.S. officials
ordered DEFCON 3. The consequent movements of aircraft and troops were of
course observed by Soviet intelligence. The purpose of the alert was not to
prepare for war, but to warn the U.S.S.R. not to intervene in the Sinai.
However, if the following accident had not been promptly corrected then the
Soviet command might have had a more dangerous interpretation.
On October 25, while DEFCON 3 was in force, mechanics were repairing one of
the Klaxons at Kinchole Air Force Base, Michigan, and accidentally
activated the whole base alarm system. B-52 crews rushed to their aircraft
and started the engines. The duty officer recognized the alarm was false
and recalled the crews before any took off.
18) November 9, 1979: Computer Exercise Tape
At 8:50 a.m. on November 9, 1979, duty officers at 4 command centers (NORAD
HQ, SAC Command Post, The Pentagon National Military Command Center, and
the Alternate National Military Command Center) all saw on their displays a
pattern showing a large number of Soviet Missiles in a full scale attack on
the U.S.A. During the next 6 minutes emergency preparations for retaliation
were made. A number of Air Force planes were launched, including the
President's National Emergency Airborne Command Post, though without the
President! The President had not been informed, perhaps because he could
not be found.
No attempt was made to use the hot line either to ascertain the Soviet
intentions or to tell the Soviets the reasons for U.S. actions. This seems
to me to have been culpable negligence. The whole purpose of the "Hot Line"
was to prevent exactly the type of disaster that was threatening at that
moment.
With commendable speed, NORAD was able to contact PAVE PAWS early warning
radar and learn that no missiles had been reported. Also, the sensors on
the satellites were functioning that day and had detected no missiles. In
only 6 minutes the threat assessment conference was terminated.
The reason for the false alarm was an exercise tape running on the computer
system. U.S. Senator Charles Percy happened to be in NORAD HQ at the time
and is reported to have said there was absolute panic. A question was asked
in Congress. The General Accounting Office conducted an investigation, and
an off-site testing facility was constructed so that test tapes did not in
the future have to be run on a system that could be in military operation.
19) June , 1980: Faulty Computer Chip
The Warning displays at the Command Centers mentioned in the last episode
included windows that normally showed
0000 ICBMs detected 0000 SLBMs detected
At 2:25 a.m. on June 3, 1980, these displays started showing various
numbers of missiles detected, represented by 2's in place of one or more
0's. Preparations for retaliation were instituted, including nuclear bomber
crews staring their engines, launch of Pacific Command's Airborne Command
Post, and readying of Minutemen missiles for launch. It was not difficult
to assess that this was a false alarm because the numbers displayed were
not rational.
While the cause of that false alarm was still being investigated 3 days
later, the same thing happened and again preparations were made for
retaliation. The cause was a single faulty chip that was failing in a
random fashion. The basic design of the system was faulty, allowing this
single failure to cause a deceptive display at several command posts.
The following incident is added to illustrate that even now, when the Cold
War has been over for 8 years errors can still cause concern. This
particular one could have hardly brought nuclear retaliation.; but there
are still 30,000 nuclear weapons deployed, and two nuclear weapon states
could get into a hostile adversarial status again.
20) January, 1995: Russian False Alarm
On January 25, 1995, the Russian early warning radar's detected an
unexpected missile launch near Spitzbergen. The estimated flight time to
Moscow was 5 minutes. The Russian President, the Defense Minister and the
Chief of Staff were informed. The early warning and the control and command
center switched to combat mode. Within 5 minutes, the radar's determined
that the missile's impact would be outside the Russian borders.
The missile was Norwegian, and was launched for scientific measurements. ON
January 16, Norway had notified 35 countries including Russia that the
launch was planned. Information had apparently reached the Russian Defense
Ministry, but failed to reach the on-duty personnel of the early warning
system.
See article in Scientific American by Bruce G. Blair, Harold A. Feiveson
and Frank N. von Hippel
Comment and Note On Probability
The probability of actual progression to nuclear war on any one of the
occasions listed may have been small, due to planned "fail-safe" features
had failed. However, the accumulation of small probabilities of disaster
from a long sequence of risks add up to serious danger.
There is no way of telling what the actual level of risk was in these
mishaps but if the chance of disaster in every one of the 20 incidents had
been only 1 in 100, it is mathematical fact that the chance of surviving al
20 would have been 82%, i.e. about the same as the chance of surviving a
single pull of the trigger at Russian roulette played with a 6 shooter.
With a similar series of mishaps on the Soviet side: another pull of the
trigger. If the risk in some of the events had been as high as 1 in 10,
then the chance of surviving just seven such events would have been less
than 50:50.
Acronyms
BMEWS: Ballistic Missile Early Warning Site
CIA: Central Intelligence Agency
CINC: Commander in Chief
DEFCON: Defense Readiness Condition (DEFCON 5 is the peacetime state;
DEFCON 1 is a maximum war readiness).
HQ: Headquarters
ICBM: Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (land based)
KGB: Soviet Secret Police and Intelligence
NORAD: North American Air Defense Command
PAVE PAWS: Precision Acquisition of Vehicle Entry Phased-Array Warning
System
SAC: Strategic Air Command
SIOP: Single Integrated Operational Plan
SLBM: Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile
Principal Sources
Britten, Stewart: The Invisible Event , (London: Menard Press, 1983).
Calder, Nigel: Nuclear Nightmares , (London: British Broadcasting
Corporation, 1979)
Peace Research Reviews , vol. ix: 4, 5 (1984); vol. x: 3, 4 (1986) (Dundas,
ON.: Peace Research Institute, Dundas).
Sagan, Scott D.: The Limits of Safety , (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton
University Press, (1993).
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Pollution fears as UK ship loses cargo
A damaged container ship, grounded off the English coast and listing badly, began to lose some of its cargo in heavy winds, and officials said Sunday that oil was leaking from a crack in the vessel's hull.
The stricken MSC Napoli was deliberately run aground in waters close to Sidmouth, southwest England, after it was damaged during a storm on Thursday.
Navy helicopters rescued the vessel's 26 crew members in rough seas, 45 miles (70 kilometers) off Lizard Point on England's southwest tip.
French maritime officials said that of the 41,700 tons of merchandise in the ship's 2,400 containers, 1,700 tons were considered dangerous, including explosive and flammable material. The containers also hold motorcycles, car parts and oak barrels.
Britain's Department for Transport said more than 200 containers from the ship, which was listing at a 30-degree angle, had slid into the sea as new gales struck the English coast late Saturday.
Maritime and Coast Guard spokesman Paul Coley said two of the containers that went overboard contained hazardous materials -- including battery acid and perfume products -- but that the risk they posed was "minimal."
Robin Middleton, the government's salvage adviser, said a greater threat was posed by the ship's 3,000 tons of diesel and fuel oil, some of which had leaked out through a crack in the vessel's port side. He said only one fuel tank appeared to be ruptured, and no more than 200 tons of oil was likely to leak.
Middleton told a news conference that salvage workers would attempt to stabilize the ship to prevent it capsizing, pump out the fuel oil and remove the containers.
The 16-year-old vessel is registered in London and was last inspected by the coast guard agency in May 2005, when officials said it met safety standards.
The stricken MSC Napoli was deliberately run aground in waters close to Sidmouth, southwest England, after it was damaged during a storm on Thursday.
Navy helicopters rescued the vessel's 26 crew members in rough seas, 45 miles (70 kilometers) off Lizard Point on England's southwest tip.
French maritime officials said that of the 41,700 tons of merchandise in the ship's 2,400 containers, 1,700 tons were considered dangerous, including explosive and flammable material. The containers also hold motorcycles, car parts and oak barrels.
Britain's Department for Transport said more than 200 containers from the ship, which was listing at a 30-degree angle, had slid into the sea as new gales struck the English coast late Saturday.
Maritime and Coast Guard spokesman Paul Coley said two of the containers that went overboard contained hazardous materials -- including battery acid and perfume products -- but that the risk they posed was "minimal."
Robin Middleton, the government's salvage adviser, said a greater threat was posed by the ship's 3,000 tons of diesel and fuel oil, some of which had leaked out through a crack in the vessel's port side. He said only one fuel tank appeared to be ruptured, and no more than 200 tons of oil was likely to leak.
Middleton told a news conference that salvage workers would attempt to stabilize the ship to prevent it capsizing, pump out the fuel oil and remove the containers.
The 16-year-old vessel is registered in London and was last inspected by the coast guard agency in May 2005, when officials said it met safety standards.
Ship spilling oil and cargo off England
A damaged and listing cargo ship was spilling fuel and cargo containers into stormy seas off the southwest coast of England, near Devon, British officials said Sunday night. Some of the containers held hazardous materials.
An estimated 150 to 200 containers have slipped off the deck of the heavily damaged ship, the Napoli, which is listing severely, said Paul Coley of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency at a press conference Sunday.
Some of the containers have already washed up at local beaches, officials said. The police have closed some beaches and warned residents not to approach any of the containers, some of which are thought to contain substances like nitric acid and perfume ingredients.
In addition, the boat's hull developed a crack at some point before or during the towing operation and since last night has been spilling heavy diesel fuel oil into the sea, presumably from its engines.
The Napoli was deliberately run aground after it was damaged during a storm Thursday. The ship was refloating at each high tide and still at risk of capsizing, so two French tug boats were trying to move it further ashore. Once it is firmly beached, the ship will be flooded to prevent further movement and the fuel oil in the tanks will be pumped out.
It is not clear how much fuel oil has spilled into local waters, although there have been reports of a few sea birds covered in oil.
The leaks are extremely threatening because the boat is near a sensitive ecological area, the estuary of the Axe River, an area known for wildlife and also salmon breeding, said Mike Dunning, spokesman for the U.K. Environment Agency in Southwest England. The British authorities have deployed a boom over the mouth of the river as a precaution to prevent any oil from washing in.
"We are working closely with the MCA to minimize damage," he said, referring to the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, which is leading the salvage operation.
The Napoli was damaged and its crew of 26 evacuated 40 miles, or about 65 kilometers, off the British coast on Thursday after a severe storm, with seas of 40 feet, or 12 meters, and winds of 70 miles per hour. British officials subsequently decided to tow the vessel nearer to land and to ground it to prevent it from sinking.
But recurrent gale force wind and high seas near the coast Sunday caused the boat to list, allowing containers piled 4 high on its deck to fall into the sea perilously close to land, Dunning said.
"The salvage plan concerns the oils that we deem at this present moment to be the greater threat," said Robin Middleton, a salvage advisor to the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, at a news conference Sunday.
The vessel was carrying 2,323 containers, 158 of which are classed as hazardous according to the International Maritime Dangerous Goods Code. In addition to the nitric acid and perfume ingredients, dangerous material in the containers included potassium hydoxide and battery acid.
The coastguard agency said that it believed only 2 of the containers washed overboard contained hazardous materials and that the risk they posed was so far deemed "minimal."
Other containers on the British-registered ship held motorcycles and car parts.
The 16-year-old ship was last inspected by the coast guard agency in May 2005. But the same ship, previously named CMA-CGM ran aground in Vietnam in 2001 and subsequently underwent major structural repairs, the BBC reported.
Despite reports of hazardous materials overboard, British officials said Sunday they were still most concerned about the fuel oil.
The ship's tanks hold a total of 3,000 tons of diesel and fuel oil but British officials said Sunday that only one tank, holding 200 tons, appeared damaged.
An estimated 150 to 200 containers have slipped off the deck of the heavily damaged ship, the Napoli, which is listing severely, said Paul Coley of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency at a press conference Sunday.
Some of the containers have already washed up at local beaches, officials said. The police have closed some beaches and warned residents not to approach any of the containers, some of which are thought to contain substances like nitric acid and perfume ingredients.
In addition, the boat's hull developed a crack at some point before or during the towing operation and since last night has been spilling heavy diesel fuel oil into the sea, presumably from its engines.
The Napoli was deliberately run aground after it was damaged during a storm Thursday. The ship was refloating at each high tide and still at risk of capsizing, so two French tug boats were trying to move it further ashore. Once it is firmly beached, the ship will be flooded to prevent further movement and the fuel oil in the tanks will be pumped out.
It is not clear how much fuel oil has spilled into local waters, although there have been reports of a few sea birds covered in oil.
The leaks are extremely threatening because the boat is near a sensitive ecological area, the estuary of the Axe River, an area known for wildlife and also salmon breeding, said Mike Dunning, spokesman for the U.K. Environment Agency in Southwest England. The British authorities have deployed a boom over the mouth of the river as a precaution to prevent any oil from washing in.
"We are working closely with the MCA to minimize damage," he said, referring to the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, which is leading the salvage operation.
The Napoli was damaged and its crew of 26 evacuated 40 miles, or about 65 kilometers, off the British coast on Thursday after a severe storm, with seas of 40 feet, or 12 meters, and winds of 70 miles per hour. British officials subsequently decided to tow the vessel nearer to land and to ground it to prevent it from sinking.
But recurrent gale force wind and high seas near the coast Sunday caused the boat to list, allowing containers piled 4 high on its deck to fall into the sea perilously close to land, Dunning said.
"The salvage plan concerns the oils that we deem at this present moment to be the greater threat," said Robin Middleton, a salvage advisor to the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, at a news conference Sunday.
The vessel was carrying 2,323 containers, 158 of which are classed as hazardous according to the International Maritime Dangerous Goods Code. In addition to the nitric acid and perfume ingredients, dangerous material in the containers included potassium hydoxide and battery acid.
The coastguard agency said that it believed only 2 of the containers washed overboard contained hazardous materials and that the risk they posed was so far deemed "minimal."
Other containers on the British-registered ship held motorcycles and car parts.
The 16-year-old ship was last inspected by the coast guard agency in May 2005. But the same ship, previously named CMA-CGM ran aground in Vietnam in 2001 and subsequently underwent major structural repairs, the BBC reported.
Despite reports of hazardous materials overboard, British officials said Sunday they were still most concerned about the fuel oil.
The ship's tanks hold a total of 3,000 tons of diesel and fuel oil but British officials said Sunday that only one tank, holding 200 tons, appeared damaged.
Zune wants Europe, does Europe want Zune?
From a European’s perspective, the announced launch of Zune for the end of 2007 is apparently not an event to make you anxiously shiver or rejoice.
A recent announcement made by Jason Reindorp, marketing director for Zune at Microsoft, indicates that the Redmond behemoth plans to introduce its… MP3 player (I would have said iPod-killer but that’s not the case) in Europe by the end of this year.
Reindorp also said that the Zune managed to grab since its launch about 10.2 percent market share in the U.S. in the 30 gigabyte MP3 player category. That seems pretty impressive considering the short period (although I do advise you to take Reindorp’s allegations with a grain of salt) and is in accordance with the company’s forecast for the first half of 2007: 1 million Zune owners by June. Alexa.com also reports that Zune.net, the official site where you can find out about Zune and buy songs or download short videos, has made it to the 5,711th place, which indicates that it has between 50,000 and 100,000 visitors per day, but is now way below the peak registered in November (and apparently dropping).
Reindorp, quoted by Reuters, said at the annual music industry Midem Net conference in France “"You couldn't get a more entrenched competitor. But we feel really good about the first steps that we've taken."
"The industry moves in this sort of Christmas to Christmas cycle. So you can expect that there will be more devices, more features in the market at that point," he said.
"Our next round of introductions will probably be in time for the holiday of this year."
"We're not simply trying to play catch up with Apple," he said. "We are very realistic, we have what is essentially a three-year plan to firmly and solidly get on the radar.”
Well, from hopes to reality is a long way. At least for Zune.
I have unofficially made an ad-hoc poll among my friends on IM clients, all of them being involved in the tech or the news industry here in Europe, and the results are disappointing for Microsoft: Zune apparently doesn’t exist in the EU.
I asked them first whether they know what Zune is. Friends from France, Sweden or Italy have not even heard of this name, and if they did (and associated it by contrast with the iPod, after viewing some photos) they firmly declared that they’ll stick to the iPod. They were on the other side attracted by the wireless sharing feature of the Zune (after I mentioned this to them), but were disappointed by the fact that only around 58% of the songs were actually transferable from one gadget to another (let’s hope that rate will improve).
Concerning Zune’s interoperability with Windows Vista or Xbox or even SoapBox (Microsoft’s new video service which is in Beta - I told them about it because I have a beta-tester account), they didn’t seem to be impressed, all of them saying that they prefer to wait and see how Vista or SoapBox behave on the market before taking a decision.
The interoperability between Zune and Xbox 360 has been made available in advance. In October, MS released a software update for its famous gaming console, through the Xbox Live Marketplace service, explaining that the update will let the Xbox 360 stream music, pictures and video from a Zune device, and from the Zune software on a Windows PC. The Xbox 360 will also stream content from the new Windows Media Player 11 PC software.
I repeat: this is not an official point of view and might not reflect real life situations. But in the next days I will certainly include a poll on the site where users from all over the world (but especially Europeans) will be able to express their thoughts about Zune, so… stay Zuned.
A recent announcement made by Jason Reindorp, marketing director for Zune at Microsoft, indicates that the Redmond behemoth plans to introduce its… MP3 player (I would have said iPod-killer but that’s not the case) in Europe by the end of this year.
Reindorp also said that the Zune managed to grab since its launch about 10.2 percent market share in the U.S. in the 30 gigabyte MP3 player category. That seems pretty impressive considering the short period (although I do advise you to take Reindorp’s allegations with a grain of salt) and is in accordance with the company’s forecast for the first half of 2007: 1 million Zune owners by June. Alexa.com also reports that Zune.net, the official site where you can find out about Zune and buy songs or download short videos, has made it to the 5,711th place, which indicates that it has between 50,000 and 100,000 visitors per day, but is now way below the peak registered in November (and apparently dropping).
Reindorp, quoted by Reuters, said at the annual music industry Midem Net conference in France “"You couldn't get a more entrenched competitor. But we feel really good about the first steps that we've taken."
"The industry moves in this sort of Christmas to Christmas cycle. So you can expect that there will be more devices, more features in the market at that point," he said.
"Our next round of introductions will probably be in time for the holiday of this year."
"We're not simply trying to play catch up with Apple," he said. "We are very realistic, we have what is essentially a three-year plan to firmly and solidly get on the radar.”
Well, from hopes to reality is a long way. At least for Zune.
I have unofficially made an ad-hoc poll among my friends on IM clients, all of them being involved in the tech or the news industry here in Europe, and the results are disappointing for Microsoft: Zune apparently doesn’t exist in the EU.
I asked them first whether they know what Zune is. Friends from France, Sweden or Italy have not even heard of this name, and if they did (and associated it by contrast with the iPod, after viewing some photos) they firmly declared that they’ll stick to the iPod. They were on the other side attracted by the wireless sharing feature of the Zune (after I mentioned this to them), but were disappointed by the fact that only around 58% of the songs were actually transferable from one gadget to another (let’s hope that rate will improve).
Concerning Zune’s interoperability with Windows Vista or Xbox or even SoapBox (Microsoft’s new video service which is in Beta - I told them about it because I have a beta-tester account), they didn’t seem to be impressed, all of them saying that they prefer to wait and see how Vista or SoapBox behave on the market before taking a decision.
The interoperability between Zune and Xbox 360 has been made available in advance. In October, MS released a software update for its famous gaming console, through the Xbox Live Marketplace service, explaining that the update will let the Xbox 360 stream music, pictures and video from a Zune device, and from the Zune software on a Windows PC. The Xbox 360 will also stream content from the new Windows Media Player 11 PC software.
I repeat: this is not an official point of view and might not reflect real life situations. But in the next days I will certainly include a poll on the site where users from all over the world (but especially Europeans) will be able to express their thoughts about Zune, so… stay Zuned.
Drug Ads: Taking Medicine Never Looked So Good
Remember all those tricks drugmakers used to get you to take medicine as a kid? They made cough syrup sweet and acetaminophen chewable. They transformed horse pill vitamins into friendly cartoon characters.
Well, perhaps a better approach would've been to inundate you with ads--ones that depict a fearful and alone child who becomes happy, confident and popular after taking a pill.
That formula, it seems, works well on millions of Americans, who watch as many as 16 hours of prescription drug ads every year -- far more than the average time spent with a primary care physician.
Since the Food and Drug Administration relaxed restrictions on direct-to-consumer advertising 10 years ago, commercials touting prescription cures for everything from insomnia to heart burn to erectile dysfunction have become ubiquitous, if not any less mysterious. (I never understand what any of those medicines do, except potentially provoke the gross list of side effects muttered at lightening speed at the end of the ad.)
Direct-to-consumer ads cost Big Pharma $1.19 billion in 2005, up from $654 million in 2001.
The question is, do all those ads help consumers make health care decisions or are they just convincing people they need treatments for conditions they don't have?
Former FDA Commissioner David Kessler thinks prescription drug ads are causing us to overmedicate. In an editorial that accompanied the study, he offered sleeping pills as an example. One-third of direct-to-consumer ad spending in 2005 was on sleep medications, yet sleep disorders are no where near a major cause of death in the United States the way heart disease and cancer are. He also cited a 2002 FDA survey of doctors, which found that 41 percent believed such ads don't help to inform consumers but actually give them bad information.
Given the importance of ads in health-care decisions, a group of researchers lead by Dominick L. Frosch, of the University of California - Los Angeles Department of Medicine, chose to dissect four weeks worth of prescription drug ads from 2004. Their findings are in the latest issue of the Annals of Family Medicine.
Some nuggets from the report:
- 86 percent of the ads made rational pitches for a drug but only about a quarter described the condition's causes, risk factors and prevalence. When ads did refer to prevalence, they used vague terms such as "millions."
- 95 percent made emotional appeals by framing medication use in terms of losing and regaining control and winning social approval. (Picture once-beleaguered allergy sufferers running merrily, nostrils flared, through a weed-filled field.)
- None of the ads mention lifestyle change as an alternative to products, though some -- 19 percent -- mentioned it as an adjunct to medication. And 18 percent of ads made lifestyle changes seem futile, such as an ad that featured a woman who ran three miles every day and ate 50-calorie salads for lunch but whose cholesterol was 277 mg/dL.
- More than half the ads show people engaging in moderate physical activity -- the one silver lining in the study.
"Portrayal of healthy lifestyles in the ads... may offer some public health benefits" by promoting the benefits of physical activity, the authors noted.
In response to criticism of aggressive prescription drug marketing, especially following the flurry of lawsuits filed over the heavily promoted painkiller Vioxx, some pharmaceutical companies have volunteered to wait a year after a drug is approved to begin advertising, but the study's authors say that's not enough. They need to address the content of the ads, too.
The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association responded to the study more specifically yesterday saying such advertising "empowers patients," and increases "people's awareness of diseases and available treatments." The trade group also noted that it came out with guidelines for direct-to-consumer ads that address some of the study's concerns. Those took effect in January 2006, but the study doesn't reflect changes made by drugmakers since then because it only looked at ads from 2004.
Has anyone noted an improvement in prescription drug ads? Or do the study's findings still resonate with what you see? More importantly, do you feel like you've learned valuable health information after watching Abe Lincoln sitting around a kitchen table talking to a beaver?Greece: Three weeks of struggle… and it continues!!!!!
Greek universities are paralyzed. More than half of faculties nation wide (Universities and Colleges) are occupied by the students who refuse the privatization of Greek education system .Every day General Assemblies are organized and new faculties are added to the list. At side of the students we find also the university lecturer, primary and secondary education teachers and several trade-unions.
Why this explosion??
In the center of this new social explosion is the government’s will (with the explicit agreement of the party of opposition, the PASOK, Socialist Party) to revise Article 16 of the Greek Constitution. This article guarantees a high quality, free and especially public education for all Greek citizens. It declares without ambiguity that only the State can provide this service and that any private person is explicitly prohibited to do it in its place or in parallel.
It is obvious that an article of this type poses a major problem in the process of privatization of education. Process, let us not forget it, directed by the U.E through the Essen, Bologna and Lisbon Agreements.
In the Greek Parliament the discussion is not likely to be tense. The PASOK and Nea Dimokratia-party in government, centre right wing-, which together count for 90% of the seats, are in agreement on the revision. It is ironic is that it was the president of the opposition to the Parliament, G. Papandreou the president of the PASOK, who introduced it. The proposal concerns the opening of the market of education.
“The revision of Article 16 is essential for the improvement of the public system of education. Thanks to the creation of non-state and non-profit organizations the public universities will be forced to rationalize and become more effective thus exceeding the phenomena of bureaucracy and stagnation. ” he said in 2005. It is thanks to this “assist” on behalf of the “opposition” that the party in the government, Nea Dimokratia, can without obstacles dismount the national educational system.
The movement is getting bigger and bigger and bigger….
After three weeks of struggle the students do not seem tired. It started with a dozen occupied faculties and in three weeks it reached 311 occupied faculties. This has more merit if we think that the occupations are not permanent but each week, and in certain cases twice per weeks, there is a struggle in General Assemblies against the DAP (student union organization related to the party in government) which is a great force among the students.
Each week Coordinations at city level and one at national level take place. In spite of their structure being little fuzzy and questionable it is obvious that the participation increased since their beginning two weeks ago. The first national meeting had 200 students of all Greece representing their committee of occupation while in the second, one week later, there where more than 2000 students.
Since the beginning of the movement there are demonstrations organized every Wednesday. The participation in these demonstrations reflects the national tendency. On Wednesday January 24, third national event, the number of demonstrators at the national level reached 40000. In Athens there were 20000 demonstrators, in Thessaloniki 8000 to10000 and in other cities 10000.
However these figures are clearly lower than the capacity of the movement. It should not be forgotten that in the movement May-June 2006 more than 90% of faculties were occupied and that the demonstrations at the national level reached 70.000 - 80.000 demonstrators. “It is obvious that the fear of loss of the exam session or even of the whole semester and the arguments of the DAP limit the students to take part in the movement... ” Declared one participant of the Coordination of the occupations of Thessaloniki.
Students are not alone….
However in the street the students are not alone. The trade-unions: of university professors, primary and secondary teachers, employees at the universities, public services, of the workers in the construction /industry, some of the private sectors support and take part in the mobilizations. According to voice of the left, this is also the struggle of the workers.
This is only the beginning. The vote on the revision of the Constitution will take place in Mars. Meanwhile this week of new General Assemblies were called to decide the future actions, regional Coordinations and a national one of all faculties in the struggle are already planned. As it appears even more faculties will be swallowed by the wave of discontent as new mobilizations take place this week.
Why this explosion??
In the center of this new social explosion is the government’s will (with the explicit agreement of the party of opposition, the PASOK, Socialist Party) to revise Article 16 of the Greek Constitution. This article guarantees a high quality, free and especially public education for all Greek citizens. It declares without ambiguity that only the State can provide this service and that any private person is explicitly prohibited to do it in its place or in parallel.
It is obvious that an article of this type poses a major problem in the process of privatization of education. Process, let us not forget it, directed by the U.E through the Essen, Bologna and Lisbon Agreements.
In the Greek Parliament the discussion is not likely to be tense. The PASOK and Nea Dimokratia-party in government, centre right wing-, which together count for 90% of the seats, are in agreement on the revision. It is ironic is that it was the president of the opposition to the Parliament, G. Papandreou the president of the PASOK, who introduced it. The proposal concerns the opening of the market of education.
“The revision of Article 16 is essential for the improvement of the public system of education. Thanks to the creation of non-state and non-profit organizations the public universities will be forced to rationalize and become more effective thus exceeding the phenomena of bureaucracy and stagnation. ” he said in 2005. It is thanks to this “assist” on behalf of the “opposition” that the party in the government, Nea Dimokratia, can without obstacles dismount the national educational system.
The movement is getting bigger and bigger and bigger….
After three weeks of struggle the students do not seem tired. It started with a dozen occupied faculties and in three weeks it reached 311 occupied faculties. This has more merit if we think that the occupations are not permanent but each week, and in certain cases twice per weeks, there is a struggle in General Assemblies against the DAP (student union organization related to the party in government) which is a great force among the students.
Each week Coordinations at city level and one at national level take place. In spite of their structure being little fuzzy and questionable it is obvious that the participation increased since their beginning two weeks ago. The first national meeting had 200 students of all Greece representing their committee of occupation while in the second, one week later, there where more than 2000 students.
Since the beginning of the movement there are demonstrations organized every Wednesday. The participation in these demonstrations reflects the national tendency. On Wednesday January 24, third national event, the number of demonstrators at the national level reached 40000. In Athens there were 20000 demonstrators, in Thessaloniki 8000 to10000 and in other cities 10000.
However these figures are clearly lower than the capacity of the movement. It should not be forgotten that in the movement May-June 2006 more than 90% of faculties were occupied and that the demonstrations at the national level reached 70.000 - 80.000 demonstrators. “It is obvious that the fear of loss of the exam session or even of the whole semester and the arguments of the DAP limit the students to take part in the movement... ” Declared one participant of the Coordination of the occupations of Thessaloniki.
Students are not alone….
However in the street the students are not alone. The trade-unions: of university professors, primary and secondary teachers, employees at the universities, public services, of the workers in the construction /industry, some of the private sectors support and take part in the mobilizations. According to voice of the left, this is also the struggle of the workers.
This is only the beginning. The vote on the revision of the Constitution will take place in Mars. Meanwhile this week of new General Assemblies were called to decide the future actions, regional Coordinations and a national one of all faculties in the struggle are already planned. As it appears even more faculties will be swallowed by the wave of discontent as new mobilizations take place this week.
Skype Founder Tries Hand at Online Advertising
The folks behind eBay-owned Skype announced that they will invest in Wunderloop, an online advertising firm based in Luxembourg. Niklas Zennstrom, founder of Skype, along with two of his technology investors, Klaus Hommels and Howard Hartenbaum, will invest in the European company that claims to have developed a groundbreaking type of targeted advertising.
Wunderloop has already begun working with AOL, T-Online, Tiscali, Lycos, and Deutsche, and lays claim that its technology can improve revenue gain for advertisers by 10 to 15 times over its current rate. The company claims that advertising efficiency would also reach almost 80 percent with this new technology, which Wunderloop claims continuously analyzes users’ current behavior - what they click on or their queries in search engines, for example – and compares available market research data in real-time from AGOF, Nielsen NetRatings and comScore among others. Additional information is culled with the user’s consent from in-house data such as CRM profiles.
Other investors like the Samwer brothers are joining in on backing Wunderloop, which will receive an estimate of €8m (£5m). While Hommels and Hartenbaum are using their own funds to invest, Zennstrom is investing through his Atomico Investments.
In a statement to the New York Times, Hartenbaum said, “When I am surfing the web, I get a lot of ads that are a waste of my time and a waste of the advertisers’ time - weight-loss products for women, for example. Wunderloop means that I get a better experience, and it works for the advertise.
Educational unification in Australia
THE University of New England will lead a consortium of 14 Australian universities to develop a template for a new international "qualifications passport".
The Australian Diploma Supplement is expected to make it easier for graduates to move between jobs and institutions in Australia and overseas.
It is part of the commonwealth's response to Europe's Bologna Process, a higher education bloc of 45 countries with common degree structures.
Education Minister Julie Bishop announced in September that she would proceed with a diploma supplement. Today she will reveal the 14 members of the consortium selected to draw up a template.
The supplement, used in many European countries, is a document of several pages attached to a degree or diploma that can be easily understood by institutions and employers anywhere.
It outlines their achievements, describes courses, the university attended and the higher education system in their country of study.
"The ultimate aim for the supplement is to assist students and employers, both at home and abroad, by providing a world-class system for verifying student qualifications," Ms Bishop said.
The consortium will work with a range of interested people, including students, and employer and professional associations.
Ms Bishop has also established a steering group to monitor the Bologna Process.
"The steering group will help to fill some of the gaps in our knowledge on the latest developments in Europe and act as an important source of advice and leadership on this issue."
Last April a federal government discussion paper warned that Australia needed to look at uniform degree structures, a diploma supplement and international recognition of qualifications to meet competition from Europe.
"The Bologna process seems likely to have a profound effect on the development of higher education globally," the paper said.
But some sceptics believe the potential effect is overstated and that it would be better for Australia to align with Asian countries.
Europe wide smoke ban proposed
The EU could become a "smoke-free zone" with a Europe-wide smoking ban if proposals by the European Commission go ahead.
The Commission wants the rest of the EU to follow the lead of Ireland, Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales which have all banned smoking in public places.
Partial bans apply elsewhere - and a partial ban in France starts this week - but EU Health and Consumer Protection Commissioner Markos Kyprianou said he wants a comprehensive ban on smoking in all public places in the EU by 2009.
Member states are being asked to step up their own measures, but the EU's 27 countries are being warned Europe-wide legislation may be imposed.
Conservative MEP John Bowis said the EU should avoid legislating on smoking. He said: "Europe should butt out on enforcing smoke-free zones across member states with more heavy-handed legislation."
"As usual, Europe is at its best when it shares good practice. It enables us to learn from and, when appropriate, emulate one another."
The Irish ban came into force in March 2004, followed by Scotland in March last year. Complete smoke-free legislation will be in force in Northern Ireland, England and Wales by summer this year.
The Commission says that about one third of the EU's 480 million population still smokes - almost 38 per cent of men and 23 per cent of women.
Canadian PM letter dismisses Kyoto as 'socialist scheme'
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper once called the Kyoto accord a "socialist scheme" designed to suck money out of rich countries, according to a letter leaked Tuesday by the Liberals.
Text of a 2002 letter by Stephen Harper to members of his Canadian Alliance party denouncing the Kyoto accord:
The letter, posted on the federal Liberal party website, was apparently written by Harper in 2002, when he was leader of the now-defunct Canadian Alliance party.
He was writing to party supporters, asking for money as he prepared to fight then-prime minister Jean Chrétien on the proposed Kyoto accord.
"We're gearing up now for the biggest struggle our party has faced since you entrusted me with the leadership," Harper's letter says.
"I'm talking about the 'battle of Kyoto' — our campaign to block the job-killing, economy-destroying Kyoto accord."
The accord is an international environmental pact that sets targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Canada officially ratified the accord Dec. 17, 2002, under Chrétien's Liberal government. Harper's Conservative government, which took power January 2006, has since been accused of ignoring the accord.
Harper's letter goes on to outline why he's against the agreement.
Accord based on 'contradictory' data: Harper
He writes that it's based on "tentative and contradictory scientific evidence" and it focuses on carbon dioxide, which is "essential to life."
He says Kyoto requires that Canada make significant cuts in emissions, while countries like Russia, India and China face less of a burden.
Under Kyoto, Canada was required to reduce emissions by six per cent by 2012, while economies in transition, like Russia, were allowed to choose different base years.
"Kyoto is essentially a socialist scheme to suck money out of wealth-producing nations," Harper's letter reads.
He said the accord would cripple the oil and gas industries, which are essential to Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.
He wrote in the letter that he would do everything he could to stop Chrétien from passing the Kyoto agreement.
"We will do everything we can to stop him there, but he might get it passed with the help of the socialists in the NDP and the separatists in the BQ [Bloc Québécois]."
The Prime Minister's Office refused to comment about the letter on the record.
In recent weeks, Harper has spoken strongly about the environment, saying he will dramatically revamp his minority government's much-criticized Clean Air Act.
His comments come as public-opinion polls indicate the environment has become the number one issue among Canadians.
Liberal MP Mark Holland told the Canadian Press on Tuesday that the leaked letter shows that Harper isn't actually committed to climate change.
"Now, suddenly, because he has seen the polls and realized the political opportunism of going green, the prime minister has launched a new campaign — that of trying to convince Canadians that he actually cares about the environment," Holland said.
"But no one is buying it."
The Kyoto Protocol went into effect Feb. 16, 2005, with 141 countries signing on, including every major industrialized country, except the United States, Australia and Monaco.
Here is the full textText of a 2002 letter by Stephen Harper to members of his Canadian Alliance party denouncing the Kyoto accord:
Dear Friend,
We’re on a roll, folks!
The Canadian Alliance is once again setting the agenda in the House of Commons. Look at what happened in less than two months since Parliament reopened:
- We bagged another Liberal cabinet minister when we drove the hapless Lawrence MacAulay to resign for violating the ethics guidelines.
- We broke Jean Chretien’s chokehold on the House of Commons by getting the election of committee chairs and votes on all private members’ bills.
- We finally (!) got the Liberals to agree to set up a national registry for sex offenders.
But we can’t just relax and declare victory. We’re gearing up for the biggest struggle our party has faced since you entrusted me with the leadership. I’m talking about the “battle of Kyoto” - our campaign to block the job-killing, economy-destroying Kyoto Accord.
It would take more than one letter to explain what’s wrong with Kyoto, but here are a few facts about this so-called “Accord”:
- It’s based on tentative and contradictory scientific evidence about climate trends.
- It focuses on carbon dioxide, which is essential to life, rather than upon pollutants.
- Canada is the only country in the world required to make significant cuts in emissions. Third World countries are exempt, the Europeans get credit for shutting down inefficient Soviet-era industries, and no country in the Western hemisphere except Canada is signing.
- Implementing Kyoto will cripple the oil and gas industry, which is essential to the economies of Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.
- As the effects trickle through other industries, workers and consumers everywhere in Canada will lose. THERE ARE NO CANADIAN WINNERS UNDER THE KYOTO ACCORD.
- The only winners will be countries such as Russia, India, and China, from which Canada will have to buy “emissions credits.” Kyoto is essentially a socialist scheme to suck money out of wealth-producing nations.
- On top of all this, Kyoto will not even reduce greenhouse gases. By encouraging transfer of industrial production to Third World countries where emissions standards are more relaxed, it will almost certainly increase emissions on a global scale.
For a long time, the Canadian Alliance stood virtually alone in opposing the Kyoto Accord, as Bob Mills, our senior environment critic, waged a valiant battle against it. Now, however, allies are stepping forward - eight of 10 provincial governments, and a broad coalition of businesses across Canada - to help us fight the “battle of Kyoto.”
Jean Chretien says he will introduce a resolution to ratify Kyoto into Parliament and get it passed before Christmas. We will do everything we can to stop him there, but he might get it passed with the help of the socialists in the NDP and the separatists in the BQ.
But the “battle of Kyoto” is just beginning. Ratification is merely symbolic; Kyoto will not take effect unless and until it is implemented by legislation. We will go to the wall to stop that legislation and at that point we will be on much stronger procedural ground than in trying to block a mere resolution.
The Reform Party defeated the Charlottetown Accord in an epic struggle in the fall of 1992. Now the Canadian Alliance is leading the battle against the Kyoto Accord!
But we can’t do it alone. It will take an army of Canadians to beat Kyoto, just as it did to beat Charlottetown.
We can’t stop Kyoto just in Parliament. We need your help at all levels. We need you to inform yourself about Kyoto, to discuss it with your friends and neighbours, and to write protest letters to newspapers and the government.
And, yes, we need your gifts of money. The “battle of Kyoto” is going to lead directly into the next election. We need your contribution of $500, or $250, or $100, or whatever you can afford, to help us drive the Liberals from power.
Yours truly,
Stephen Harper, MP
Leader of the Opposition
PS: The “battle of Kyoto” shows why the Canadian Alliance is so important to you and to Canada. All the other federal parties are supporting Kyoto (Liberals, NDP, BQ) or speaking out of both sides of their mouth (Tories). Only the Canadian Alliance is strong and fearless enough to block dangerous and destructive schemes like the Charlottetown Accord and the Kyoto Accord.
What is the Kyoto Protocol
Delegates from 189 nations will meet in Nairobi from November 6-17 for annual talks on combating climate change and the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, meant to cut emissions of gases blamed for global warming.
Here are some frequently asked questions about Kyoto:
WHAT IS THE KYOTO PROTOCOL?
- It is a pact agreed by governments at a 1997 U.N. conference in Kyoto, Japan, to reduce greenhouse gases emitted by developed countries to at least 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12. A total of 165 nations have ratified the pact.
IS IT THE FIRST AGREEMENT OF ITS KIND?
- Governments agreed to tackle climate change at an "Earth Summit" in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 with non-binding targets. Kyoto is the follow-up and is the first binding global agreement to cut greenhouse gases.
SO IT IS LEGALLY BINDING?
- Kyoto has legal force from February 16, 2005. It represents 61.6 percent of developed nations' total emissions. The United States, the world's biggest source of emissions, pulled out in 2001, saying Kyoto is too expensive and wrongly omits developing nations from a first round of targets to 2012.HOW WILL IT BE ENFORCED?
- Countries overshooting their targets in 2012 will have to make both the promised cuts and 30 percent more in a second period from 2013.
DO ALL COUNTRIES HAVE TO CUT EMISSIONS BY FIVE PERCENT?
- No, only 35 relatively developed countries have agreed to targets for 2008-12 under a principle that richer countries are most to blame. They range from an 8 percent cut for the European Union from 1990 levels to a 10 percent rise for Iceland.
HOW ARE THEY DOING SO FAR?
- Rich nations' emissions were 3.3 percent below 1990 levels in 2004, mainly due to a collapse of Soviet-era industries. Emissions are now rising in many countries. In the United States, outside Kyoto, emissions were up 15.8 percent from 1990.
WHAT ARE THESE 'GREENHOUSE GASES?'
- Greenhouse gases trap heat in the earth's atmosphere. The main culprit is carbon dioxide, produced largely from burning fossil fuel. The protocol also covers methane, much of which comes from agriculture, and nitrous oxide, mostly from fertilizer use. Three industrial gases are also included.HOW WILL COUNTRIES COMPLY?
- The European Union set up a market in January 2005 under which about 12,000 factories and power stations are given carbon dioxide quotas. If they overshoot they can buy extra allowances in the market or pay a financial penalty; if they undershoot they can sell them.
WHAT OTHER MECHANISMS ARE THERE?
- Developed countries can earn credits to offset against their targets by funding clean technologies, such as solar power, in poorer countries. They can also have joint investments in former Soviet bloc nations.
US Airways stands firm on bid to acquire Delta
The prospect of imminent airline industry consolidation faded Tuesday as US Airways Group Inc. reported no headway in its bid to take over rival Delta Air Lines Inc.
US Airways Chief Executive Doug Parker said his airline's nearly $10-billion bid for Delta was firm and he had no intention of extending the Feb. 1 deadline for Delta's official committee of creditors to respond.
Investors had hoped a US Airways-Delta deal would lead to more takeovers in the sector, which would cut competition and give surviving carriers an opportunity to raise fares.
Airline shares dropped across the board, even after US Airways and discount rival JetBlue Airways Corp. reported quarterly profits as oil prices jumped, heralding higher costs.
Parker dismissed as speculation reports that the airline would increase its $9.7-billion bid for Delta, which is operating under bankruptcy protection.
Delta has resisted US Airways, saying that Delta is worth more as a stand-alone company and that a merger would present antitrust problems. Delta said Tuesday that it had lined up $2.5 billion in financing from six major Wall Street banks when it exits bankruptcy.
Parker made his comments after US Airways reported a quarterly profit, reversing a year-earlier loss. The company also reported a profitable 2006, its first full year since the 2005 combination of US Airways and America West.
Tempe, Ariz.-based US Airways reported fourth-quarter net income of $12 million, or 13 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $261 million, or $3.27. The loss was made worse by a large fuel-hedge loss and some merger costs.
Forest Hills, N.Y.-based JetBlue also reported a fourth-quarter profit as both airlines benefited from strong travel demand and higher ticket prices.
But shares of both airlines dropped in the face of surging crude oil prices. US Airways' stock fell $1.33 to $53.10. JetBlue shares fell 65 cents to $13.85.
US Airways Chief Executive Doug Parker said his airline's nearly $10-billion bid for Delta was firm and he had no intention of extending the Feb. 1 deadline for Delta's official committee of creditors to respond.
Investors had hoped a US Airways-Delta deal would lead to more takeovers in the sector, which would cut competition and give surviving carriers an opportunity to raise fares.
Airline shares dropped across the board, even after US Airways and discount rival JetBlue Airways Corp. reported quarterly profits as oil prices jumped, heralding higher costs.
Parker dismissed as speculation reports that the airline would increase its $9.7-billion bid for Delta, which is operating under bankruptcy protection.
Delta has resisted US Airways, saying that Delta is worth more as a stand-alone company and that a merger would present antitrust problems. Delta said Tuesday that it had lined up $2.5 billion in financing from six major Wall Street banks when it exits bankruptcy.
Parker made his comments after US Airways reported a quarterly profit, reversing a year-earlier loss. The company also reported a profitable 2006, its first full year since the 2005 combination of US Airways and America West.
Tempe, Ariz.-based US Airways reported fourth-quarter net income of $12 million, or 13 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $261 million, or $3.27. The loss was made worse by a large fuel-hedge loss and some merger costs.
Forest Hills, N.Y.-based JetBlue also reported a fourth-quarter profit as both airlines benefited from strong travel demand and higher ticket prices.
But shares of both airlines dropped in the face of surging crude oil prices. US Airways' stock fell $1.33 to $53.10. JetBlue shares fell 65 cents to $13.85.
Scientists Gather to Finalize Climate Report
Scientists from across the world gathered here today to hammer out the final details of an authoritative report on climate change that is expected to project centuries of rising temperatures and sea levels unless curbs are placed on emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases that trap heat in the atmosphere.
According to scientists involved with writing or reviewing the report, the fourth since 1990 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body overseen by the United Nations, it is nearly certain to conclude that there is at least a 90 percent probability that human-caused emissions are the main driver of warming since 1950.
The report, according to several authors, who spoke only on condition of anonymity saying that details could still change, will describe a growing body of evidence showing that warming is likely to profoundly transform the planet.
Three large sections of the report will be forthcoming during the year, with the summary for policymakers and sections on basic climate science coming on Friday.
Among findings in recent drafts are that the Arctic Ocean could largely be devoid of sea ice in summers later in the century; the Alps could shift from snowy winter destinations to summer havens from the heat; growing seasons in temperate regions will expand, while droughts will likely further ravage semi-arid regions of Africa and southern Asia.
"Concerns about climate change and public awareness on the subject are at an all time high," the chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, told delegates today.
"It would perhaps be no exaggeration to suggest that at no time in the past has there been a greater global appetite for knowledge on any subject as there is today on the scientific facts underlying the reality of global climate change," Dr. Pachauri said.
But scientists involved in the effort warned that squabbling between teams and representatives from governments of more than 100 countries over how to portray the most probable amount of sea-level rise during the 21st century could distract from the basic finding that a warming world will be one in which retreating coasts are the new normal for centuries to come.
Jerry Mahlman, an emeritus researcher at the National Center For Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., who was a reviewer of the report’s single-spaced, 1,644-page summary of climate science, said that most of the leaks to the press so far were from people eager to find elements that were the scariest or most reassuring.
He added in an interview yesterday that such efforts distract from the basic, undisputed findings, saying that those point to trends that are very disturbing.
Mr. Mahlman pointed to recent disclosures that there is still uncertainty about the pace at which seas will rise due to warming and melting of terrestrial ice over the next 100 years. That span, he said, was just the start of a process of a rise in sea levels that would then almost certainly continue for 1,000 years or so.
The latest draft of the IPCC summary highlights the hazardous consequences of “business as usual,” finding that twice the pre-industrial concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will likely warm the climate by between 3.5 degrees and 8 degrees Fahrenheit, with a greater than one-in-ten chance of much higher temperatures.
Even the mid-range projection for warming, according to many climate experts and biologists, is likely to powerfully stress ecosystems and disrupt longstanding climate patterns related to water supplies and agriculture.
Many economists and energy experts long ago abandoned any expectation that it would be possible to avoid a doubling of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations given growth of human populations, use of fossil fuels, particularly coal, and deforestation in the tropics.
As a result, a significant focus of the summary coming this week and of other sections of the report will be the necessity to boost the resilience of agriculture and water supplies to inevitable shifts, while trying to slow and, as soon as it can be affordably done, reverse the century-long climb in releases of the heat-trapping gases.
Many experts involved in the IPCC process said there is hope that with a prompt start on slowing emissions, the chances of seeing much great warmer and widespread disruption of ecosystems and societies can be cut.
Outside experts agreed.
``We basically have three choices - mitigation, adaptation, and suffering,” said John Holdren, the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and an energy and climate expert at Harvard University. ``We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be.”
One key point of controversy in early drafts of the IPCC report is a smaller rise in sea level than the last report projected. In the next several days, scientists relying on field observations and computer models of ocean and ice behavior in a warming world will struggle to find a consensus.
Some scientists say that the figures used in the upcoming report are not up to date because they leave out recent observations of instability in some ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland.
Ice loss in those regions has been very sudden in some cases, implying a more rapid rise in sea levels than projected by some computer models.
Another possible point of contention during the four days of closed-door sessions in Paris this week could be assertions in early drafts of the report that the recent warming rate was blunted by particle pollution and volcanic eruptions.
Some scientists say the final report should reflect the assumption that the rate of warming in coming years is likely to be more pronounced that in previous decades.
The IPCC report will not outline measures to tackle global warming. Instead, it will concentrate on the latest evidence that the phenomenon is underway.
But Achim Steiner, the executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, said the findings that will be presented on Friday should lead decision-makers to accelerate efforts to slash carbon emissions and to help people in vulnerable parts of the world prepare for climate change.
"These findings should strengthen the resolve of governments to act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and put in place the medium to longer term strategies necessary to avert dangerous climate change," said Mr. Steiner.
In a new report issued on today, UNEP said the most recent evidence from mountain glaciers showed they were melting faster than before, or 1.6 times more than the average of the 1990s, and three times the loss rate of the 1980s.
UNEP warned that the trend was likely to continue because 2006 was one of the warmest years in many parts of the world.
Also today, there were new concerns about climate change in low-lying parts of the world. Indonesia could lose about 2,000 islands by 2030 because of the phenomenon, according to the country’s environment minister, Rachmat Witoelar.
Over the past year, international concern over what to do about global warming has grown along with concrete signs of climate change in developing regions like Africa, where water is running low, and in developed regions, like Europe, where there was a marked lack of snow at Alpine ski resorts during early January.
Even so political leaders are still groping for ways to tackle the phenomenon. Europe has adopted a program that caps the amount of emissions from industrial producers.
But the world’s largest emitter, the United States, still is debating whether to adopt a similar policy while developing-world countries like China are resisting caps on the grounds that the industrialized world contributed about 75 percent of the current volume of greenhouse gases and should make the deepest cuts.
That has hampered the chances of an effective solution, which experts say will require all nations to cut emissions or become more energy efficient.
The second section of the IPCC report, which focuses on the impacts of and ways of adapting to climate change, is slated for release in April, while a section on mitigating climate change is expected to be released in May.
The final part, a synthesis of all three parts for policy-makers, is expected in November.
The fallout of global warming: 1,000 years
In stark terms, scientists confirm that climate change is 'unequivocal'
Humans have already caused so much damage to the atmosphere that the effects of global warming will last for more than 1,000 years, according to a summary of a climate-change report being prepared by the world's leading scientists.
The draft, seen by The Globe and Mail yesterday, also says evidence the world is heating up is now so strong it is “unequivocal” and predicts more frequent heat waves, droughts and rain storms, as well as more violent typhoons and hurricanes. It concludes the higher temperatures observed during the past 50 years are so dramatically different from anything in the climate record that the last half-century period was likely the hottest in at least the past 1,300 years.
Moreover, 11 of the past 12 years rank among the warmest since humans began taking accurate temperature measurements in the 1850s, a record of extremes so pronounced it is unlikely to be due to chance.
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level,” says the draft, which is being reviewed in Paris before its formal release Friday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The draft also makes projections of how the climate is likely to change over this century:
-- Sea ice will shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and late summer sea ice in the Arctic could disappear almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century;
-- Heat waves and storms involving heavy precipitation will continue to become more common, as will droughts;
-- The number of hurricanes will decrease, but the ones that do occur will be more powerful;
-- Ocean currents responsible for such things as the Gulf Stream will slow, possibly by as much as 25 per cent. The report said it's “very unlikely” that currents will have abrupt changes during the 21st century, but longer-term alterations “cannot be assessed with confidence.”
-- Global temperatures in 2090-99 are likely to be 1.7 degrees to 4 degrees warmer than the period from 1980-1999;
-- Current models suggest global warming of 1.9 to 4.6 degrees would lead to a “virtually complete” elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and a rise in sea levels of about 7 metres, if sustained for millennia;
-- Sea levels will probably rise from between 0.28 metres and 0.43 metres, although there is a chance the increase will be larger if Greenland and Antarctic ice discharges continue to grow.
The IPCC report is the fourth to be issued by the UN-organized group of scientists, and draws on contributions of about 2,000 top experts from around the world, including many from Canada.
The panel's findings have evolved since the first was issued in 1990, becoming more confident over time that human activity — mainly the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and large-scale agriculture — have been causing profound changes on the climate.
The first report suggested global warming might be happening. The second, in 1995, said it was likely to be under way, while the third, in 2001, had a tone that indicated scientists were pretty sure they were seeing humanity's fingerprints on changes in climate.
Given the stark tenor of the draft scientists are now considering, they seem absolutely sure that climate change is happening.
The projection that human influence on the atmosphere during the 21st century will contribute to warming for more than 1,000 years is based on estimates for how long it will take nature to remove global-warming gases from the air.
The draft says evidence of warming is now being found almost everywhere in the world, from the tops of mountains, where glaciers are in retreat, to ocean deeps, where the average water temperatures have increased all the way down to depths of 3,000 metres because of the warming effect of a hotter atmosphere.
Some environmentalists are predicting that a strongly worded IPCC report will dispel any lingering doubts that global warming is really happening, and are calling on politicians to start taking more sweeping action to limit emissions of the greenhouse gases blamed for climate change.
“There is no more reason to delay,” said John Bennett, spokesman for the Climate Action Network Canada. “We need the policies, regulations, and programs to reduce emissions and we need to do it with the same kind of urgency that we would use to fight a war.”
The United Nations' top environment official is calling for an emergency climate-change summit later this year.
The IPCC report will be issued in four instalments over the course of the year. The first section, now being prepared, deals with all new scientific evidence assembled since 2001 on how the world's climate has been changing. The others will deal with specific topics, such as how humans can adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects.
The draft says concentrations of two main greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, “far exceed” anything seen over the past 650,000 years, based on data that reconstructed the atmospheric composition of earlier times using air bubbles contained in ice cores.
The changes to the atmosphere are so large the scientists estimate that warming due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are at least five times larger than natural changes caused by normal alterations in output of solar energy from the sun.
Although the draft doesn't mention Canada directly, it says average Arctic temperatures have experienced a far sharper rise than elsewhere on the planet, increasing at a rate over the past 100 years that is double the global average.
Major global warming report
The Eiffel Tower's 20,000 flashing light bulbs will go dark for five minutes on Thursday evening, hours before scientists and officials publish a long-awaited report about global warming.
The blackout comes at the urging of environmental activists seeking to call attention to energy waste -- and just hours before world scientists unveil a major report on Friday warning that the planet will keep getting warmer and presenting new evidence of humanity's role in climate change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release a report laying out policy proposals for governments based on the latest research on global warming.
The top U.N. official for the environment asked Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Tuesday to convene an emergency summit of world leaders aimed at breaking a deadlock over cutting greenhouse gases.
The impetus for such a world summit is U.S. President George W. Bush's acknowledgment in his Jan. 24 State of the Union speech that climate change needs to be dealt with, and the EU's Jan. 10 proposals for a new European energy policy that stresses the need to slash carbon emissions blamed for global warming, U.N. environment program spokesman Nick Nuttall said.
"There's a lot of momentum that has being building," Nuttall said. "We have a window of opportunity."
Nuttall said the summit could be held between July and December.
The second day of the Paris talks wound down Tuesday evening more or less on schedule, according to officials at UNESCO, the conference's host.
There was little sign of the late-night wrangling among countries that marked previous reports. The report must be unanimously approved by bureaucrats from more than 100 governments who can challenge the scientists' wording.
"The government people determine how things are said, but we (the scientists) determine what is said," said Kevin Trenberth, a lead author of the report and director of climate analysis at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.
The end result is a cautious document, many scientists say.
One Russian participant said Tuesday that the discussions he observed were more procedural than political.
Another observer who has taken part in several such conferences, Stephanie Tunmore of Greenpeace, said, "So far we're running on timetable. But who knows, we've got two more days. If there's any panic, it will be Wednesday night when they realize they've only got a few hours left."
An early draft of the report being released in Paris suggests it will contain stronger evidence of the human role in climate change and more specific predictions of rising temperatures and sea levels this century.
The report "won't change our scientific basis, but it will make our jobs easier," Steve Sawyer, of Greenpeace, said Tuesday. "It is an important and powerful new tool in public debate and policy debate."
Environmental groups have long urged governments and consumers to rely more on renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power instead of greenhouse gas-emitting ones like coal and oil. Greenhouse gases are considered a key culprit of rising global temperatures.
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